Egypt’s monetary policy makers are expected to leave key interest rates unchanged at their Thursday meeting of the Monetary Policy Committee.
This would be the fourth consecutive time the central bank has paused its borrowing cost adjustments. It will be done after weighing the recent rise in domestic prices against its impact on other factors.
The consensus among market analysts and economists is that the Central Bank of Egypt (CBE) will keep its existing rates as the overnight deposit facility (OFF) at 19% and the overnight lending facility (OLF) at 20%.
The decision to keep rates on pause will follow similar decisions made by the committee during its July 9, policy review meeting.
The monetary policy review comes directly after official data highlighted a slight acceleration in price pressures. Annual urban headline inflation crept up to 14.9% in July, rising from 14.3% in June.
Concurrently, annual core inflation—which excludes volatile food and energy items—registered a minor increase to 14.7%.
Banking experts attribute this uptick largely to persistent baseline effects and recent adjustments to residential electricity tariffs rather than a systemic demand spike.
Despite these localized cost bumps, analysts suggest that the overall macroeconomic environment supports holding borrowing rates steady. Restrictive monetary measures enacted earlier have successfully maintained positive real interest rates, helping anchor medium-term consumer expectations.
Furthermore, a flexible exchange rate mechanism and solid international reserves have helped absorb regional trade and geopolitical shocks.
Looking ahead, economic forecasts suggest inflation could stabilize around 16% through the third quarter before gradually resuming a downward trajectory. Monetary officials aim to guide annual inflation toward a single-digit target of 7% (±2 percentage points) over the coming years.
Consequently, analysts expect the central bank to retain its restrictive posture, delaying potential interest rate cuts until price declines regain sustained momentum.
